Atletico Mineiro 3-1 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.08
6+ Goals
10%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.7
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.42
X/2
8%
7.49
X/X
14%
4.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
2/2
12%
6.06
2/X
6%
14.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.45/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.45
+10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
21.1 Crosses 19.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.60
45% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 10
290 Passes 366
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.09.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR1
27.04.2025 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
3-1
AWAY Mirassol FC
2.23 xG 0.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
327 Passes 334
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro saw off Mirassol FC 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 49% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 51%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.23 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.00 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC?

Atletico Mineiro 3-1 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 44%, draw 27%, Mirassol FC 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
17 May 2026
00:30 Internacional vs Vasco da Gama Analysis →
01:00 Fluminense vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
03:00 Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
17:00 Santos vs Coritiba Analysis →
22:00 Botafogo vs Corinthians Analysis →
22:00 Bahia vs Gremio Analysis →