Internacional 4-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.1
6+ Goals
8%
20.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.6
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
21%
4.36
X/2
7%
7.89
X/X
14%
4.19
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
11%
6.49
2/X
6%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Internacional EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.71/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.31
-23% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
24.5 Crosses 18.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Internacional
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.34 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
396 Passes 328
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 5-1 HT 2-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
28.07.2025 Internacional Internacional 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
22.11.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
08.07.2024 Internacional Internacional 1-2 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
27.10.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
11.06.2023 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Internacional
4-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.79 xG 0.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
268 Passes 448
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Internacional vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Internacional cruised past Vasco da Gama 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Internacional as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Internacional had 40% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 60%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.79 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Internacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Internacional and 1.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Internacional vs Vasco da Gama?

Internacional 4-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Internacional vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Internacional win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Internacional 49%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Internacional), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Internacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
17 May 2026
00:30 Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC Analysis →
01:00 Fluminense vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
03:00 Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
17:00 Santos vs Coritiba Analysis →
22:00 Botafogo vs Corinthians Analysis →
22:00 Bahia vs Gremio Analysis →