Fluminense 2-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.68
6+ Goals
12%
15.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.25
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.15
X/2
6%
9.19
X/X
19%
4.72
2/1
8%
24.35
2/2
9%
7.59
2/X
4%
15.85
Value flag · X/1 at 4.15 — our 25% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.2pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.6pp
21%
Away Win
21%
-0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.68/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.34
+9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
384 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.8 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
402 Passes 362
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.11.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 6-0 HT 3-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
27.07.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
02.09.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
14.05.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
23.11.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.19 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
394 Passes 386
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Fluminense had 50% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 50%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.19 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Sao Paulo?

Fluminense 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 49%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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