Bahia vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bahia v Gremio — Team-Based Signals
Bahia vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Bahia
BR1
1-1
HT 0-1
Bahia
BRK
Bahia 1-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics
Bahia and Gremio shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Bahia had 59% of the ball to Gremio's 41%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.90 to 0.19.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bahia and 0.50 for Gremio.
What was the final score of Bahia vs Gremio?
Bahia 1-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bahia vs Gremio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bahia 50%, draw 24%, Gremio 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bahia) went the other way.