Bahia 1-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 May 2026

Bahia
1-1 HT 0-0
Gremio
📅17/05/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.17
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 31% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.16
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
18%
4.24
X/2
8%
9.45
X/X
9%
5.29
2/1
8%
22.25
2/2
13%
7.37
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.67/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.87
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 81%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.0 Crosses 13.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gremio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.55 xG 1.22
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
456 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2025 Bahia Bahia 4-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
25.05.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
17.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
28.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.11.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-1
AWAY Gremio
1.90 xG 0.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
390 Passes 250
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia and Gremio shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Bahia had 59% of the ball to Gremio's 41%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.90 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bahia and 0.50 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Gremio?

Bahia 1-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bahia 50%, draw 24%, Gremio 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bahia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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