Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
19%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.62
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
17%
4.45
X/2
5%
7.78
X/X
14%
4.28
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
9%
6.23
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
49%
+5.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
19%
Away Win
24%
-5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.60/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.23
+13% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 81%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
21.5 Crosses 17.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.46 xG 0.98
52% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
307 Passes 295
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
02.06.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-1 HT 2-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
05.12.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
21.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.12.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
15.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.05 xG 0.44
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 Passes 352
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras and Cruzeiro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 47% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 53%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.05 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?

Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 54%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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