Botafogo 3-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.56
2-3 Goals
35%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
4.26
6+ Goals
8%
21.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.8
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
10%
5.44
X/2
12%
5.73
X/X
16%
3.92
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
14%
4.12
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.69/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.30
+34% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
17.6 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Corinthians
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
388 Passes 421
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 2-2 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.07.2025 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
15.09.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
02.06.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
23.09.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
12.05.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
3-1
AWAY Corinthians
0.95 xG 0.82
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
172 Passes 400
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 25
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo beat Corinthians 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Botafogo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Botafogo had 35% of the ball to Corinthians's 65%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.95 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botafogo and 0.83 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Corinthians?

Botafogo 3-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 39%, draw 29%, Corinthians 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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