Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 FK Panevezys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.7pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Panevezys EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.67/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.99
+39% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FK Panevezys
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2025 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 3-0 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
09.03.2025 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LITA
22.09.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 HT 1-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LITA
04.07.2024 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 0-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
18.05.2024 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 0-2 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
30.03.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 4-2 HT 2-1 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
3-1
AWAY FK Panevezys
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Panevezys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen got the better of FK Panevezys 3-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hegelmann Litauen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hegelmann Litauen had 44% of the ball to FK Panevezys's 56%, shots finished 18-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.33 for FK Panevezys.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Panevezys?

Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 FK Panevezys in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Panevezys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 45%, draw 25%, FK Panevezys 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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