RKC Waalwijk 2-3 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Oct 2025

RKC Waalwijk
2-3 HT 0-1
Willem II
📅17/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

RKC Waalwijk vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
7.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.11
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.45
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
6.59
X/X
12%
5.46
2/1
7%
23.1
2/2
15%
4.17
2/X
4%
12.85
Value flag · X/2 at 6.59 — our 16% vs market 11.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.5pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.70/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.15
-5% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.3 Crosses 20.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

RKC Waalwijk vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Willem II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 1.20
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
283 Passes 372
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.01.2025 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
15.09.2024 Willem II Willem II 3-0 HT 2-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
06.02.2022 Willem II Willem II 3-1 HT 3-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
28.10.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOK
21.09.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-2 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
23.04.2021 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL

RKC Waalwijk 2-3 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2-3
AWAY Willem II
2.24 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
25 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
367 Passes 268
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 12
35 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II squeezed past RKC Waalwijk 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Willem II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 56% of the ball to Willem II's 44%, shots finished 25-12, expected goals 2.24 to 0.85 — on chances, RKC Waalwijk could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 1.50 for Willem II.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Willem II?

RKC Waalwijk 2-3 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 39%, draw 24%, Willem II 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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