Helmond Sport 4-2 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.58
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
10%
4.94
X/2
10%
7.84
X/X
9%
5.62
2/1
9%
21.35
2/2
10%
5.26
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.4pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +16%
1.37/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.30
+3% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
17.6 Crosses 10.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
3W-1D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.94 xG 1.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
278 Passes 429
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2025 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
18.10.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
11.03.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
10.11.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
23.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.08.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
4-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
2.54 xG 1.79
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
359 Passes 310
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport saw off AZ Alkmaar II 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Helmond Sport as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 54% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 46%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.54 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Helmond Sport 4-2 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 49%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar II 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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