Utrecht II 3-1 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
2.81
6+ Goals
10%
8.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 26% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.93
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
15%
5.17
X/2
8%
6.76
X/X
8%
5.63
2/1
7%
22.25
2/2
19%
4.41
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.2pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.5pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 34%
-18% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.31/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.67
-43% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
17.0 Crosses 16.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.56 xG 1.16
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
366 Passes 406
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.04.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 5-0 HT 3-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
04.11.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 4-3 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
19.01.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
30.10.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
17.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
14.11.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 3-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
3-1
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.82 xG 1.23
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
241 Passes 447
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 31
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II saw off MVV Maastricht 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Utrecht II as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Utrecht II had 37% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 63%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 2.82 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Utrecht II and 2.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs MVV Maastricht?

Utrecht II 3-1 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 45%, draw 21%, MVV Maastricht 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht II), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht II) ✓ BTTS Yes
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