Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
55%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.96
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
14.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 24% vs market 21.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.8
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.8
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
6%
7.53
X/2
12%
4.54
X/X
11%
4.56
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
34%
2.66
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.8 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
26%
-4.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
55%
Away Win
47%
+7.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 51%
+10% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.18/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.89
-23% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
211 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 73%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
19.6 Crosses 21.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Grimsby Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.01
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
211 Passes 266
60% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2025 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.01.2025 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
01.10.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 0-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
16.03.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
02.09.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
14.02.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-4
AWAY Grimsby Town
0.77 xG 2.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
194 Passes 217
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 36
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town swept aside Gillingham 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Grimsby Town as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Gillingham had 49% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 51%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.77 to 2.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gillingham and 1.17 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Grimsby Town?

Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 21%, draw 25%, Grimsby Town 55%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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