FC Dallas 3-1 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.0pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -15%
1.40/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.71
+7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
15.7 Crosses 18.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Dallas
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Austin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.81 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 386
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-1 HT 1-0 Austin Austin ABD
31.03.2024 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
27.08.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
22.06.2023 Austin Austin 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
14.05.2023 Austin Austin 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
24.10.2022 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 2-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Dallas
3-1
AWAY Austin
2.14 xG 0.73
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
351 Passes 431
88% Pass Accuracy 91%
19 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Dallas vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Dallas got the better of Austin 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Dallas as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, FC Dallas had 45% of the ball to Austin's 55%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 2.14 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Dallas and 1.33 for Austin.

What was the final score of FC Dallas vs Austin?

FC Dallas 3-1 Austin in the USA - Major League on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Dallas vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Dallas win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Dallas 50%, draw 24%, Austin 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Dallas), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Dallas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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