Port Vale 3-1 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.82
Over
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.17
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
23%
3.7
6+
10%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.17 — our 30% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.76
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.42
X/2
10%
7.09
X/X
13%
4.64
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
14%
5.33
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town The Market 30%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +14%
1.38/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/2.30
-7% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +136% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
337 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.1 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.22 xG 1.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
218 Passes 290
66% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 Port Vale Port Vale 2-2 HT 2-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
03.02.2024 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 3-0 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
08.08.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 3-2 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNLK
11.03.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
30.07.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 2-1 HT 2-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
15.09.2020 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
3-1
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.08 xG 1.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
406 Passes 275
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale beat Fleetwood Town 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Port Vale made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Port Vale had 56% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 44%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 1.08 to 1.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured Fleetwood Town.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Port Vale and 1.83 for Fleetwood Town.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?

Port Vale 3-1 Fleetwood Town in the England - 2nd Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 38%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Vale) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
19 Oct 2024
00:00 Accrington Stanley vs Barrow Analysis →
00:00 Colchester vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →
00:00 Bradford City vs Gillingham Analysis →
00:00 Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon Analysis →
00:00 Grimsby Town vs Walsall Analysis →
00:00 Morecambe vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →