Aris Saloniki 1-1 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.71
2-3 Goals
36%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.58
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
27.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
13%
7.22
X/2
15%
4.75
X/X
11%
4.21
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
13%
2.91
2/X
7%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.15/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.85
+24% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -2%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
14.7 Crosses 18.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Panathinaikos
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 1.24
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
293 Passes 408
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2025 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-0 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
27.10.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
25.05.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
28.04.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
07.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-2 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
28.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
1-1
AWAY Panathinaikos
0.65 xG 1.08
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
321 Passes 389
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki and Panathinaikos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 46% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 54%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.65 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panathinaikos led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.00 for Panathinaikos.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs Panathinaikos?

Aris Saloniki 1-1 Panathinaikos in the Greece - Super League on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 34%, draw 27%, Panathinaikos 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Panathinaikos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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