Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 20 Jun 2025

📅20/06/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.38
Over 2.5
32%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.29
No
64%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
14%
6.63
6+ Goals
5%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.89
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.25
X/1
18%
4.97
X/2
10%
5.91
X/X
17%
3.26
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
20%
5.05
2/X
7%
15.6
Value flag · 2/2 at 5.05 — our 20% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-2.2pp
31%
Draw
32%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
68%
Under 2.5
69%
-0.7pp
32%
Over 2.5
31%
+0.7pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.2pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 33%
+13% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -5%
1.11/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.14
+18% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 70%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
15.4 Crosses 17.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Derry City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.95 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
396 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.05.2025 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 2-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
14.02.2025 Shelbourne Shelbourne 3-1 HT 3-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
01.11.2024 Derry City Derry City 0-1 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
14.09.2024 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 1-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRK
05.08.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
06.05.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
0-1
AWAY Derry City
1.11 xG 0.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
431 Passes 506
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 5
23 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City nicked a narrow win over Shelbourne 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; Derry City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Shelbourne had 47% of the ball to Derry City's 53%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.11 to 0.27 — on chances, Shelbourne could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Shelbourne and 1.00 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Derry City?

Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 20/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shelbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 35%, draw 31%, Derry City 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Shelbourne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shelbourne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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