Zenit St. Petersburg 2-1 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
12%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 25% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.58
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
20.8
X/1
12%
3.73
X/2
8%
17.7
X/X
9%
6.95
2/1
11%
23.75
2/2
6%
15.95
2/X
8%
24.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
71%
-11.8pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.0pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
2.33/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.08
+19% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
391 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
24.0 Crosses 13.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Rostov
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.29 xG 1.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
323 Passes 328
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2025 Rostov Rostov 0-1 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
16.04.2025 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
12.03.2025 Rostov Rostov 0-1 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
07.02.2025 Rostov Rostov 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg HAZ
03.08.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 5-0 HT 4-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
25.05.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
2-1
AWAY Rostov
2.26 xG 0.92
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
422 Passes 126
83% Pass Accuracy 58%
28 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Zenit St. Petersburg vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg edged past Rostov 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Zenit St. Petersburg had 70% of the ball to Rostov's 30%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.26 to 0.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Zenit St. Petersburg's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg and 0.33 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Zenit St. Petersburg vs Rostov?

Zenit St. Petersburg 2-1 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zenit St. Petersburg vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Zenit St. Petersburg 59%, draw 22%, Rostov 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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