Crusaders FC 0-1 Larne FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
4.71
Draw
18%
3.94
Away
70%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
9.38
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
1/X
5%
18.2
X/1
4%
11.3
X/2
19%
4.01
X/X
7%
5.74
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
43%
1.96
2/X
6%
16.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
18%
-5.7pp
18%
Draw
22%
-3.9pp
69%
Away Win
60%
+9.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Larne FC EU Bookmakers 64%
-23% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
0.87/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.61
-23% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +59%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
256 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crusaders FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Larne FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
16.09.2025 Larne FC Larne FC 4-0 HT 1-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
05.04.2025 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
08.02.2025 Larne FC Larne FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
07.01.2025 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 1-3 HT 1-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
19.10.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 1-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
06.04.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Crusaders FC vs Larne FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC squeezed past Crusaders FC 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crusaders FC and 1.67 for Larne FC.

What was the final score of Crusaders FC vs Larne FC?

Crusaders FC 0-1 Larne FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crusaders FC vs Larne FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Crusaders FC 12%, draw 18%, Larne FC 69%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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