Newtown 2-3 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.19
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.0pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 43%
-13% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.16/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.85
-14% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +37%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-0 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
30.11.2024 Newtown Newtown 0-3 HT 0-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
24.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
29.03.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
10.02.2024 Newtown Newtown 2-3 HT 1-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
26.12.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-2 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newtown
2-3
AWAY Connahs Quay
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay nicked a narrow win over Newtown 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Newtown had 43% of the ball to Connahs Quay's 57%, shots finished 6-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newtown and 1.67 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Connahs Quay?

Newtown 2-3 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Newtown 30%, draw 27%, Connahs Quay 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
21 Mar 2025
22:45 Caernarfon Town vs Bala Town Analysis →
22:45 Haverfordwest County vs Penybont Analysis →
23:00 Aberystwyth Town vs Briton Ferry Analysis →