Houston Dynamo 1-0 Portland Timbers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.58
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
16%
4.68
X/2
9%
7.52
X/X
11%
5.22
2/1
7%
21.95
2/2
11%
5.35
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.55/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.74
-15% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
380 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 80%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
21.2 Crosses 14.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Houston Dynamo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Portland Timbers
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.43
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
454 Passes 304
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
31.03.2025 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 3-1 HT 2-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
02.06.2024 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-2 HT 1-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
17.03.2024 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-0 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
22.10.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-3 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
21.08.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 5-0 HT 4-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
30.06.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-1 HT 2-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
1-0
AWAY Portland Timbers
1.88 xG 0.65
55% Ball Possession 45%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
437 Passes 368
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
37 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo squeezed past Portland Timbers 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Houston Dynamo as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 55% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 45%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.88 to 0.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Houston Dynamo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.33 for Portland Timbers.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers?

Houston Dynamo 1-0 Portland Timbers in the USA - Major League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 49%, draw 24%, Portland Timbers 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Houston Dynamo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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