San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City — Team-Based Signals
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
St. Louis City
ABD
3-0
HT 2-0
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City — Actual Match Statistics
St. Louis City saw off San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 away from home.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had San Jose Earthquakes at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (64%) came in.
On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 57% of the ball to St. Louis City's 43%, shots finished 21-16, expected goals 3.30 to 1.96 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Jose Earthquakes.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, St. Louis City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 2.20 for St. Louis City.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 55%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 22%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) went the other way.