FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction — Model Probabilities
FC Tulsa v Las Vegas Lights — Team-Based Signals
FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
FC Tulsa 3-2 Las Vegas Lights — Actual Match Statistics
FC Tulsa found just enough to beat Las Vegas Lights 3-2. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 50%, coin-flips both.
On the day, Las Vegas Lights saw more of the ball, 65% to 35%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.01 to 0.65.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tulsa had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.33 a game for FC Tulsa against 1.33 for Las Vegas Lights.
FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights Result & Final Score
FC Tulsa 3 - 2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 59%, draw 24%, Las Vegas Lights 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.