Barry Town 2-3 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 22 Aug 2025

📅22/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
53%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.9
Over 2.5
40%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 33% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
21%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
31%
-6.8pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
53%
Away Win
43%
+10.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
49%
+10.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
51%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barry Town EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.21/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.08
+6% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barry Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Penybont
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.12.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
22.10.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 3-2 HT 2-1 Penybont Penybont GALLK
04.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 4-1 HT 0-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
29.03.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
10.02.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 0-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
28.11.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barry Town
2-3
AWAY Penybont
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Barry Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont edged past Barry Town 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barry Town had 44% of the ball to Penybont's 56%, shots finished 8-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Barry Town and 1.83 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Barry Town vs Penybont?

Barry Town 2-3 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 22/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barry Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Barry Town 25%, draw 22%, Penybont 53%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
22 Aug 2025
00:00 Flint Town United vs Caernarfon Town Analysis →
21:45 The New Saints vs Connahs Quay Analysis →
21:45 Bala Town vs Colwyn Bay Analysis →
21:45 Haverfordwest County vs Cardiff MU Analysis →
21:45 Llanelli Town vs Briton Ferry Analysis →