Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 Zalgiris Vilnius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 22 Oct 2025

📅22/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.9pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 32%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.09/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.48
+74% / +104% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -48%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2025 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
17.05.2025 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 2-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
06.04.2025 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
22.09.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 5-0 HT 4-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
05.07.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
19.05.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
1-2
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius nicked a narrow win over Kauno Zalgiris 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kauno Zalgiris at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 56% of the ball to Zalgiris Vilnius's 44%, shots finished 15-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.17 for Zalgiris Vilnius.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 22/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 42%, draw 24%, Zalgiris Vilnius 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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