Houston Dynamo vs San Diego Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Houston Dynamo v San Diego — Team-Based Signals
Houston Dynamo vs San Diego Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Diego — Actual Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo squeezed past San Diego 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Houston Dynamo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Houston Dynamo had 28% of the ball to San Diego's 72%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.52 to 1.15.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Houston Dynamo and 3.50 for San Diego.
What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?
Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?
Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 45%, draw 24%, San Diego 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Houston Dynamo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.