Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.33
Over Pick
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
40%
4-5
25%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.7pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego The Market 32%
+0% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.56/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/2.42
-17% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.5 Crosses 12.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Houston Dynamo
1W-0D-1L
AWAY San Diego
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
1.97 xG 1.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
288 Passes 502
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2025 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-4 HT 1-0 San Diego San Diego ABD
06.07.2025 San Diego San Diego 3-4 HT 1-2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
1-0
AWAY San Diego
1.52 xG 1.15
28% Ball Possession 72%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
267 Passes 726
84% Pass Accuracy 92%
13 Box Touches 28
1 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo squeezed past San Diego 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Houston Dynamo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 28% of the ball to San Diego's 72%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.52 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Houston Dynamo and 3.50 for San Diego.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?

Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 45%, draw 24%, San Diego 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Houston Dynamo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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