Toronto FC 3-3 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.86
Over
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.2
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.43
6+
12%
13.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.13
1/2
10%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
9%
6.05
X/2
10%
5.35
X/X
12%
4.57
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
18%
3.41
2/X
7%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union The Market 43%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -9%
1.15/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.17
-25% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 82%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
16.7 Crosses 17.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
399 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
29.05.2025 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
14.07.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
30.05.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
31.08.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
23.04.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-2 HT 3-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
3-3
AWAY Philadelphia Union
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
410 Passes 189
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC and Philadelphia Union shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Toronto FC had 64% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 36%, shots finished 12-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toronto FC and 1.50 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Toronto FC 3-3 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated an Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 36%, draw 27%, Philadelphia Union 38%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Philadelphia Union) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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