New York City FC 4-4 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.86
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.33
Over Pick
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
40%
4-5
25%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
13%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
53%
Home Win
50%
+3.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.7pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+1.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-1.7pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.0pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati The Market 29%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +8%
1.77/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.74
-8% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
17.9 Crosses 11.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.41 xG 1.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
353 Passes 335
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
04.05.2025 New York City FC New York City FC 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
10.11.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
03.11.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
29.10.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
03.10.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
4-4
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.80 xG 1.66
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
464 Passes 358
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC and FC Cincinnati shared the points in a 4-4 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was New York City FC at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, New York City FC had 55% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 45%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.80 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New York City FC and 0.67 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

New York City FC 4-4 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 53%, draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 24%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York City FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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