New York City FC 1-0 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.26
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.5
X/2
12%
6.41
X/X
13%
5.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.2
2/2
17%
4.12
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.2 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +16%
1.73/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.51
-15% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
18.5 Crosses 12.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.18 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 321
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
03.11.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
29.10.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
03.10.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
06.08.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-2 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
24.03.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
1-0
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.44 xG 1.07
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
354 Passes 361
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC edged past FC Cincinnati 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; New York City FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New York City FC had 50% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 50%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 2.44 to 1.07 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold New York City FC's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New York City FC and 1.50 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

New York City FC 1-0 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 38%, draw 27%, FC Cincinnati 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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