Flamengo 2-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.3
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.51
No
53%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
72%
-7.0pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.7pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+6.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
36%
+11.5pp
53%
BTTS No
64%
-11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.54/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.47
+11% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +30%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
421 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 76%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
19.3 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Vitoria
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.95 xG 0.75
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
523 Passes 265
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2026 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
26.08.2025 Flamengo Flamengo 8-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
07.04.2025 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
08.12.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
25.07.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
24.08.2018 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
2-1
AWAY Vitoria
1.71 xG 0.24
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
511 Passes 323
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 7
24 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Vitoria 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Flamengo had 61% of the ball to Vitoria's 39%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 1.71 to 0.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Flamengo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Flamengo and 0.83 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Vitoria?

Flamengo 2-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Cup on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 65%, draw 19%, Vitoria 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BRK More Brazil - Cup
23 Apr 2026
01:00 Bahia vs Remo Analysis →
01:00 Goias vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
01:30 Santos vs Coritiba Analysis →
02:30 Fortaleza vs CRB Analysis →
02:30 Athletic Club vs Internacional Analysis →
03:30 Bragantino vs Mirassol FC Analysis →