KuPS Kuopio 4-3 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 Jun 2026

📅23/06/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
4%
13.5
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
8%
10.05
X/X
10%
5.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.4
2/2
12%
7.34
2/X
7%
14.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.6pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
1.64/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.11
-12% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
426 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 79%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.9 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.81 xG 1.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
480 Passes 405
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.04.2026 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
14.02.2026 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK
16.10.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-1 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
14.09.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 2-4 HT 0-4 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
14.06.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-3 HT 0-2 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.05.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
4-3
AWAY Ilves Tampere
3.35 xG 2.12
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
424 Passes 399
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio edged past Ilves Tampere 4-3. Half-time: 4-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 51% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 49%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 3.35 to 2.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold KuPS Kuopio's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 2.17 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs Ilves Tampere?

KuPS Kuopio 4-3 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 54%, draw 22%, Ilves Tampere 25%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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