IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 Jun 2026

IFK Mariehamn
0-4 HT 0-1
HJK Helsinki
📅23/06/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2026

IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
65%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.49
2-3 Goals
40%
2.12
4-5 Goals
28%
2.4
6+ Goals
13%
4.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
11.65
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
18.25
1/X
3%
19.4
X/1
7%
15.85
X/2
25%
4.16
X/X
10%
8.42
2/1
3%
34.0
2/2
28%
1.56
2/X
7%
17.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.25 — our 12% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
13%
+1.8pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.6pp
65%
Away Win
70%
-4.5pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.6pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IFK Mariehamn v HJK Helsinki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 75%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
0.91/1.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.40/0.81
+1% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +33%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
273 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 41.3
19.6 Crosses 21.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3

IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-0D-5L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.80 xG 2.85
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
258 Passes 482
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 45
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.05.2026 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.01.2026 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
24.08.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 8-2 HT 3-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
24.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
14.02.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN

IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0-4
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.53 xG 3.72
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 7
302 Passes 381
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 42
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki ran out comfortable winners over IFK Mariehamn 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 46% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 54%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 0.53 to 3.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 2.83 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?

IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 15%, draw 20%, HJK Helsinki 65%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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