FC Tulsa 1-0 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 Aug 2025

FC Tulsa
1-0 HT 1-0
Orange County SC
📅24/08/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Tulsa v Orange County SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +20%
1.89/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.13
+9% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
20.8 Crosses 14.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Orange County SC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.82 xG 1.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
303 Passes 352
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.05.2025 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
10.08.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
31.03.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
18.06.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-3 HT 0-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
14.05.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 5-1 HT 5-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
22.09.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP

FC Tulsa 1-0 Orange County SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
1-0
AWAY Orange County SC
2.09 xG 1.69
38% Ball Possession 62%
19 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
200 Passes 354
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa squeezed past Orange County SC 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 38% of the ball to Orange County SC's 62%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.09 to 1.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for FC Tulsa and 2.00 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC?

FC Tulsa 1-0 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 48%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✗ BTTS Yes
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