FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC Prediction — Model Probabilities
FC Tulsa v Orange County SC — Team-Based Signals
FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
FC Tulsa 1-0 Orange County SC — Actual Match Statistics
FC Tulsa squeezed past Orange County SC 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.
On the day, Orange County SC saw more of the ball, 62% to 38%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.09 to 1.69.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.33 a game for FC Tulsa against 2.00 for Orange County SC.
FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC Result & Final Score
FC Tulsa 1 - 0 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
FC Tulsa vs Orange County SC Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 52%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.