Racing Club Montevideo 1-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 26 Mar 2026

📅26/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+1.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.33/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.66
-19% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Progreso
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2025 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 0-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
22.06.2025 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 3-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
30.03.2025 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
21.09.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
07.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-2 HT 2-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
10.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 4-3 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
1-1
AWAY Progreso
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo and Progreso shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Racing Club Montevideo carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Racing Club Montevideo had 54% of the ball to Progreso's 46%, shots finished 10-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Racing Club Montevideo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Racing Club Montevideo and 1.17 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso?

Racing Club Montevideo 1-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 26/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 55%, draw 23%, Progreso 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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