Amarante 1-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
45%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
45%
Away Win
41%
+3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.82/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.00
-38% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 HT 0-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
04.01.2025 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 HT 0-0 Amarante Amarante POR3
14.09.2024 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
1-1
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante and Lusitania FC Lourosa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Amarante had 42% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 58%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Amarante and 1.00 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Amarante 1-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Amarante 27%, draw 28%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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