Nacional de Football 1-2 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
53%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.94/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.14
+23% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
244 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Danubio
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.10.2025 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
30.06.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-2 HT 2-1 Danubio Danubio URU
13.04.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
28.11.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
13.07.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-6 HT 0-3 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
26.05.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-2
AWAY Danubio
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danubio squeezed past Nacional de Football 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Nacional de Football carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 44% of the ball to Danubio's 56%, shots finished 14-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.33 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Danubio?

Nacional de Football 1-2 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 56%, draw 25%, Danubio 19%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
26 Apr 2026
16:00 Central Espanol vs Cerro Analysis →
21:30 Cerro Largo vs Racing Club Montevideo Analysis →