CF Montreal 1-3 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.52
1/2
8%
22.9
1/X
9%
12.9
X/1
8%
7.0
X/2
11%
5.36
X/X
11%
5.42
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
19%
2.98
2/X
6%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
31%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-5.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.26/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.81
+0% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 83%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
18.3 Crosses 9.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Montreal
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.32 xG 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
378 Passes 370
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-1 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
14.04.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
21.09.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
18.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
29.05.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 4-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.04.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4 HT 2-3 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Montreal
1-3
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.04 xG 1.37
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 0
371 Passes 342
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati got the better of CF Montreal 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day FC Cincinnati made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, CF Montreal had 53% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 47%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.04 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for CF Montreal and 2.50 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

CF Montreal 1-3 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split CF Montreal 36%, draw 26%, FC Cincinnati 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
26 Jun 2025
00:00 Sporting Kansas City vs Charlotte Analysis →
02:30 Columbus Crew vs Atlanta United Analysis →
02:30 Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →
02:30 New England Revolution vs Nashville SC Analysis →
03:30 Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
03:30 Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo Analysis →