Minnesota United 3-1 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
18%
4.82
X/2
12%
7.31
X/X
15%
5.01
2/1
8%
24.2
2/2
11%
5.31
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +9%
1.74/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.61
-1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.1 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.30 xG 1.34
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
258 Passes 446
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2025 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-0 HT 1-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
14.07.2024 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-1 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
14.04.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-2 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
13.07.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-3 HT 0-2 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
24.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 4-0 HT 1-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABDK
18.05.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-0 HT 1-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
3-1
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.36 xG 1.14
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
226 Passes 438
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United got the better of Houston Dynamo 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Minnesota United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Minnesota United had 36% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 64%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.36 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Minnesota United and 1.50 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

Minnesota United 3-1 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 43%, draw 29%, Houston Dynamo 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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