Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.88
No
62%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.75
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.9
6+ Goals
7%
18.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 40% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.99
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
15%
7.54
X/2
22%
4.56
X/X
18%
4.44
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
11%
2.77
2/X
5%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.8pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.03/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.49
-28% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
189 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 76%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
13.7 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
0W-2D-4L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.76 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
431 Passes 313
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2025 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-1 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
03.10.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-4 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
28.07.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC CONLK
23.06.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
08.10.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
18.05.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-1
AWAY New York Red Bulls
1.07 xG 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
332 Passes 377
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Toronto FC had 48% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 52%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.07 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Toronto FC and 2.00 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?

Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated an New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 31%, draw 29%, New York Red Bulls 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (New York Red Bulls), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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