Chicago Fire 0-1 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
16%
6.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.53
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
7%
5.02
X/2
8%
8.04
X/X
9%
6.19
2/1
14%
20.3
2/2
16%
5.19
2/X
11%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.63/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.41
-5% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
18.4 Crosses 18.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.68 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
327 Passes 325
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-3 HT 1-2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
25.02.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-2 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
16.04.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
12.03.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
14.08.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 2-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
30.06.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
0-1
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.03 xG 1.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
384 Passes 305
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 23
4 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union squeezed past Chicago Fire 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Chicago Fire at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 55% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 45%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.03 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.00 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

Chicago Fire 0-1 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 44%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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