Dundalk 2-3 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 26 Jun 2026

📅26/06/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
18%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.88
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
22%
4.22
X/2
6%
11.2
X/X
9%
6.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.45
2/2
8%
8.28
2/X
4%
16.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
61%
+2.2pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.6pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundalk EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -10%
1.27/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.41
+23% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 67%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.8 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundalk
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.89 xG 1.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
264 Passes 238
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2026 Waterford FC Waterford FC 3-3 HT 1-2 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
13.03.2026 Dundalk Dundalk 5-0 HT 2-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
13.09.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 2-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
28.06.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
10.05.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 4-1 HT 2-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
15.03.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundalk
2-3
AWAY Waterford FC
1.47 xG 2.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
23 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
280 Passes 102
32 Box Touches 35
29 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dundalk vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waterford FC squeezed past Dundalk 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dundalk at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Dundalk had 54% of the ball to Waterford FC's 46%, shots finished 23-20, expected goals 1.47 to 2.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Waterford FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dundalk and 1.83 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Dundalk vs Waterford FC?

Dundalk 2-3 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 26/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundalk vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Dundalk 63%, draw 19%, Waterford FC 18%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dundalk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dundalk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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