Waterford FC 3-3 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
58%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
10%
7.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
20.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
5%
8.64
X/2
14%
4.53
X/X
11%
5.75
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
36%
2.28
2/X
6%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.5 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
24%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
57%
Away Win
53%
+4.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -24%
1.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.70
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
228 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.7 Crosses 22.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Waterford FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dundalk
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.43
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
257 Passes 266
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.03.2026 Dundalk Dundalk 5-0 HT 2-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
13.09.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 2-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
28.06.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
10.05.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 4-1 HT 2-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
15.03.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
16.09.2022 Waterford FC Waterford FC 3-2 HT 2-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Waterford FC
3-3
AWAY Dundalk
2.27 xG 3.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 26
7 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 11
162 Passes 259
61% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 49
32 Crosses 37
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Waterford FC vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waterford FC and Dundalk shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dundalk at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Waterford FC had 43% of the ball to Dundalk's 57%, shots finished 17-26, expected goals 2.27 to 3.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Waterford FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Waterford FC and 1.50 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Waterford FC vs Dundalk?

Waterford FC 3-3 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Waterford FC vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Waterford FC 18%, draw 24%, Dundalk 57%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dundalk), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dundalk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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