Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chelsea v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Aston Villa
İNP
Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa edged past Chelsea 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
This one beat our numbers. Chelsea carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Chelsea had 63% of the ball to Aston Villa's 37%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.14 to 1.19 — on chances, Chelsea could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chelsea and 1.00 for Aston Villa.
What was the final score of Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 27/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 55%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelsea) went the other way.