Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.88
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
24%
2.49
6+ Goals
13%
5.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.26
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
4.93
X/2
6%
9.11
X/X
9%
6.31
2/1
7%
19.25
2/2
13%
5.83
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · X/1 at 4.93 — our 22% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
-0.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.8pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +21%
1.99/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.47
+7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
372 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.3 Crosses 12.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Timbers
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Dallas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.09
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
324 Passes 392
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2025 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-0 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
07.10.2024 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
05.07.2024 FC Dallas FC Dallas 3-2 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
12.06.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
02.04.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
07.08.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers
2-2
AWAY FC Dallas
1.88 xG 2.78
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
447 Passes 276
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers and FC Dallas couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Portland Timbers at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Portland Timbers had 59% of the ball to FC Dallas's 41%, shots finished 24-16, expected goals 1.88 to 2.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Dallas led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.17 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?

Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 52%, draw 23%, FC Dallas 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Portland Timbers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portland Timbers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
28 Sep 2025
02:30 Charlotte vs CF Montreal Analysis →
02:30 New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Analysis →
02:30 New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Analysis →
02:30 DC United vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
03:30 Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew Analysis →
03:30 Nashville SC vs Houston Dynamo Analysis →