Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 29 Apr 2025

📅29/04/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.29
6+ Goals
10%
21.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.31
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
15%
5.88
X/2
16%
5.37
X/X
8%
4.11
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
16%
3.74
2/X
10%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +20%
1.28/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.65
-7% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +42%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
21.2 Crosses 19.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.99 xG 1.90
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
347 Passes 190
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
07.08.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
09.06.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 2-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
05.06.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-3 HT 1-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JLK
15.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-2
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.37 xG 2.11
65% Ball Possession 35%
5 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
521 Passes 242
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia squeezed past Cerezo Osaka 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 65% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 35%, shots finished 5-16, expected goals 0.37 to 2.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Machida Zelvia's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.75 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 34%, draw 26%, Machida Zelvia 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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