St. Louis City 3-1 Sporting Kansas City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.81
2-3 Goals
41%
2.04
4-5 Goals
24%
2.6
6+ Goals
13%
5.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.12
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
17%
4.39
X/2
13%
9.56
X/X
9%
6.49
2/1
8%
19.55
2/2
9%
6.14
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.2
Value flag · 2/X at 14.2 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-9.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.3pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.71/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.65
-14% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.0 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Louis City
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.32 xG 1.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
273 Passes 335
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
21.04.2024 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 3-3 HT 1-2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
06.11.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 1-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
30.10.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 1-4 HT 1-3 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
01.10.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 4-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
03.09.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 2-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
3-1
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
1.26 xG 1.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
330 Passes 362
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis City got the better of Sporting Kansas City 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Louis City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, St. Louis City had 47% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 53%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.26 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for St. Louis City and 2.17 for Sporting Kansas City.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?

St. Louis City 3-1 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 46%, draw 26%, Sporting Kansas City 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Louis City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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