Rio Ave U23 1-0 Mafra U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 30 Apr 2025

📅30/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.0
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
46%
+6.3pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.7pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.0pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave U23 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra U23 EU Bookmakers 32%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.27/2.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/2.09
+47% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
287 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave U23
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Mafra U23
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.02.2025 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 2-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
12.03.2024 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 2-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
23.01.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 4-2 HT 3-2 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave U23
1-0
AWAY Mafra U23
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave U23 vs Mafra U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave U23 squeezed past Mafra U23 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rio Ave U23 as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rio Ave U23 had 50% of the ball to Mafra U23's 50%, shots finished 11-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mafra U23 led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rio Ave U23 and 2.00 for Mafra U23.

What was the final score of Rio Ave U23 vs Mafra U23?

Rio Ave U23 1-0 Mafra U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave U23 vs Mafra U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave U23 52%, draw 21%, Mafra U23 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Ave U23), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rio Ave U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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