Sporting CP U23 2-1 Estrela U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 30 Apr 2025

📅30/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP U23 EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.54/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.47
-14% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP U23
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Estrela U23
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2025 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 2-0 Sporting CP U23 Sporting CP U23 PORU23
13.12.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-1 Sporting CP U23 Sporting CP U23 UŞGB
21.09.2024 Sporting CP U23 Sporting CP U23 1-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
12.03.2024 Sporting CP U23 Sporting CP U23 0-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
23.01.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 1-4 HT 0-2 Sporting CP U23 Sporting CP U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP U23
2-1
AWAY Estrela U23
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sporting CP U23 vs Estrela U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP U23 nicked a narrow win over Estrela U23 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP U23 as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sporting CP U23 had 65% of the ball to Estrela U23's 35%, shots finished 21-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting CP U23 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Sporting CP U23 and 0.60 for Estrela U23.

What was the final score of Sporting CP U23 vs Estrela U23?

Sporting CP U23 2-1 Estrela U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP U23 vs Estrela U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP U23 53%, draw 24%, Estrela U23 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP U23), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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