Deportivo Alaves 2-4 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.03
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
13%
5.6
X/2
14%
5.34
X/X
15%
4.15
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.75
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.27/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.13
-9% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.5 Crosses 20.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.68 xG 1.30
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
255 Passes 406
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
22.07.2025 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
11.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
15.12.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
16.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
16.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2-4
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
314 Passes 330
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao got the better of Deportivo Alaves 4-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Athletic Bilbao found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 50% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 50%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.00 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao?

Deportivo Alaves 2-4 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 34%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 36%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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