Detroit City 2-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.67
Over 2.5
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
17%
4.05
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 34% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Detroit City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +20%
1.03/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.99
-38% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +49%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
16.1 Crosses 21.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Detroit City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Louisville City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.00 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
308 Passes 248
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 0-1 HT 0-1 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
28.09.2025 Detroit City Detroit City 0-1 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
29.03.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
22.09.2024 Detroit City Detroit City 2-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.05.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 5-1 HT 1-1 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
29.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 4-0 HT 2-0 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Detroit City
2-1
AWAY Louisville City
1.65 xG 1.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
211 Passes 207
65% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Detroit City vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Detroit City edged past Louisville City 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Louisville City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Detroit City had 50% of the ball to Louisville City's 50%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.65 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Detroit City and 2.17 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Detroit City vs Louisville City?

Detroit City 2-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Detroit City vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Detroit City 30%, draw 29%, Louisville City 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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