Rhode Island 1-3 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
17%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.2 — our 26% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
59%
+2.0pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.3pp
17%
Away Win
18%
-0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.0pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 21%
-15% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.45/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.47
-40% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
24.2 Crosses 13.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rhode Island
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.25 xG 0.79
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
360 Passes 301
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.08.2025 Rhode Island Rhode Island 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLKP
06.07.2025 Rhode Island Rhode Island 1-1 HT 1-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
15.05.2025 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-1 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
01.09.2024 Rhode Island Rhode Island 2-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
18.07.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-3 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rhode Island
1-3
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.62 xG 1.49
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
455 Passes 265
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rhode Island vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion beat Rhode Island 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Rhode Island at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Rhode Island had 62% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 38%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.62 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Rhode Island had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Rhode Island and 0.40 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Rhode Island vs Birmingham Legion?

Rhode Island 1-3 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rhode Island vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rhode Island win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Rhode Island 61%, draw 22%, Birmingham Legion 17%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Rhode Island) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rhode Island) ✓ Over 2.5
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