Buxton 1-1 Kidderminster Harriers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.74
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
18.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 30% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
14%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kidderminster Harriers EU Bookmakers 51%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.13/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.10
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
189 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Kidderminster Harriers
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers 2-2 HT 1-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
01.10.2024 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers 2-0 Buxton Buxton FAK
28.09.2024 Buxton Buxton 1-1 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers FAK
07.04.2023 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers 1-0 HT 1-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
27.09.2022 Buxton Buxton 1-1 HT 0-0 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
1-1
AWAY Kidderminster Harriers
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Kidderminster Harriers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton and Kidderminster Harriers shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Kidderminster Harriers at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Buxton had 54% of the ball to Kidderminster Harriers's 46%, shots finished 6-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Kidderminster Harriers led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Buxton and 1.40 for Kidderminster Harriers.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Kidderminster Harriers?

Buxton 1-1 Kidderminster Harriers in the England - Conference on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Kidderminster Harriers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kidderminster Harriers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Buxton 27%, draw 29%, Kidderminster Harriers 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kidderminster Harriers), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kidderminster Harriers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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